by Bill McBride on 12/02/2017 08:11:00 AM
The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the October Trade deficit, and the November ISM non-manufacturing index.
—– Monday, Dec 4th —–
No major economic releases scheduled.
—– Tuesday, Dec 5th —–
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through September. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $47.1 billion in October from $43.5 billion in September.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for index to decrease to 59.0 from 60.1 in October.
10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for October.
—– Wednesday, Dec 6th —–
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 192,000 payroll jobs added in November, down from 235,000 added in October.
—– Thursday, Dec 7th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, up from 238 thousand the previous week.
10:00 AM: The Q3 Quarterly Services Report from the Census Bureau.
12:00 PM: Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for consumer credit to increase $17.0 billion in October.
—– Friday, Dec 8th —–
8:30 AM: Employment Report for November. The consensus is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November, down from the 261,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In October the year-over-year change was 2.04 million jobs.
A key will be the change in wages.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for December). The consensus is for a reading of 98.8, up from 98.5 in October.