Brexit & Beyond: Brexit Negotiator Urges ‘More Ambition’ on EU Citizens’ Rights, May Clinches DUP Deal, Trump and the German Elections

Brexit & Beyond: Brexit Negotiator Urges ‘More Ambition’ on EU Citizens’ Rights, May Clinches DUP Deal, Trump and the German Elections

Brexit & Beyond: Europe in Flux is The Wall Street Journal’s round-up of news and analysis of how Brexit will affect global business, economies and finance. You can sign up here. MUST READS Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May (L) with Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Arlene Foster at 10 Downing Street. / AFP PHOTO / […]

Stocks Up, and Peso Recovery Extended

Stocks Up, and Peso Recovery Extended

Stocks Up, and Peso Recovery Extended

June 26, 2017

Equities began the final week of the second quarter mostly on a rising note, with gains of 1.3% in Taiwan, 0.9% in China and Hong Kong, 0.6% in New Zealand, 0.4% in South Korea and 0.1% in Japan and Australia. Several markets were shut for the end of Ramadan. Share prices in Europe have advanced 1.5% in Italy, 1.2% in Switzerland, 1.1% in France, 0.8% in Germany and 0.7% in Britain.

The dollar fell 0.4% against the peso, 0.3% relative to the loonie and 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling but rose 0.4% against the yen and Swiss franc as well as 0.1% versus the euro, kiwi, and yuan. The Aussie dollar is steady.

West Texas Intermediate oil firmed 0.3% further after ending last week with a slightly better tone, but at $43.12 per barrel, the price is still rather low. Comex gold sank 1.1% to $1,242.10 per ounce, weakest since mid-May.

Ten-year German bund and British gilt yields are 2 and 1 basis points softer. Many central bankers speak today including Draghi and Kuroda.

The IFO German business climate index rose a half point to a new record high of 115.1 in June, prompting IFO officials to raise their GDP growth projections for both 2017 and 2018 and to declare that “Germany’s economy is performing very strongly.” Current conditions and future expectations each advanced.

Japanese corporate service prices slipped 0.1% for a second straight month. Their 12-month rate of increased dipped to 0.7% from 0.8%.

Japan’s index of leading economic indicators for April was revised lower as was the index of coincident economic indicators that month.

The Summary of this month’s Bank of Japan Board meeting, a pre-minutes if you will, concedes that the 2% inflation objective cannot be met in a short frame of time but advocates maintaining very accommodative QQE settings and avoiding any exit plan talks lest such spoil the effort to lift inflation expectations. While inflation remains near zero, stimulus is aiding economic growth and fiscal conditions.

The British Bankers Association estimated that mortgage approvals in May fell to an 8-month low of 40,347.

The Swiss current account surplus last quarter of CHF 11.12 billion was only half as big as in the previous quarter.

In May, producer price inflation decelerated to 4.1% in Finland and 5.3% in Spain on falling energy prices.

A political accord was reached between British Prime Minister May and the Democratic Unionist Party, a Northern Ireland regional group on whose support the Conservative minority government must get to govern.

In the Czech Republic, business sentiment improved a bit but was counterbalanced by a 10-month low in consumer confidence.

Three U.S. economic indicators will be reported today: durable goods orders, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index.

Copyright 2017, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.

 

Tags: Draghi, German business climate index, Japanese corporate service prices




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Crude: The newest bear market

Crude: The newest bear market

Crude oil in a new bear market? 
The newest bear market is in crude oil. The definition of a bear market is when an ‘asset class’ is down more than 20% from its recent high: (Bear Market Rally Definition Investopedia). It has been more than five years since the market fell so hard so fast from its’ high. Two months later, it was even lower. During the past 20 years, the SPX has struggled when oil fell into a bear market.

Oil prices broke to a fresh seven-month low on June 21, with WTI crude oil dropping to $42 per barrel. The renewed and heightened pessimism over the pace of rebalancing has sunk in as OPEC, is struggling to reduce its’ inventory. U.S. shale continues to grow production. There are large volumes of supply back in the market at the worst possible time.

WTI crude oil now technically bearish

Most oil companies are now adjusting to “lower for longer.”

The Wall Street Journal reports that “most in the oil industry are resigned to low prices for years to come, recognizing that a range of $50 to $60 might be a semi-permanent equilibrium.”

Between 2014 and 2015, 105 oil producers and 120 oilfield service companies went through bankruptcy. 

Conclusion
In short, these extreme price movements and key support levels can provide some fantastic opportunities to trade oil like my last trade in SCO for a 21% move a couple weeks ago.

 

About the Author

Founder of AlgoTrades Systems., internationally recognized market technical analyst and trader. Chris is also the founder of TheGoldAndOilGuy.com, a financial education and investment newsletter service. He is responsible for market research and trade alerts for of its newsletter publication. He is the author of “Technical Trading Mastery – 7 Steps To Win With Logic” and has  been featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco and dozens of other financial websites. You can follow him on Twitter @TheTechTraders.

New Jersey’s American Dream megamall set for $1Billion bond sale reportedly nears

New Jersey’s American Dream megamall set for $1Billion bond sale reportedly nears

EAST RUTHERFORD – The efforts to reignite the massive American Dream Meadowlands mall project pushed past a significant financial requirement this week when interest rates were set for more than $1 billion in bonds, according to NorthJersey.com. The full financing package, which includes $1.6 billion in private financing, is slated for closing late next week, the…

America’s 25 Least Affordable Housing Markets

America’s 25 Least Affordable Housing Markets

In the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis, housing became much more affordable as prices dropped. Since peaking in 2012, however, affordability has rapidly declined. Inventory of for-sale homes fell faster in May than it has in years, and home prices have risen substantially in turn.

Homeownership in the United States has declined in recent years. The homeownership rate reached 63.6% this year, nearly the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking the data over 50 years ago, and down from a peak of 69.2% in 2004.

Some areas are far less affordable than others, and in some parts of the country, typical rents and home prices are only affordable to high earners in the area. Based on data provided by real estate data company ATTOM Data Solutions and 24/7 Wall St.’s calculations, we identified the 25 counties where housing is the least affordable relative to average area wages.

Of the 25 least affordable housing markets, 16 are located in California, with many clustered around the Silicon Valley area. Many people move to these areas for the specialized, high-paying jobs available. However, even with some of the highest incomes in the country, typical housing costs are well out of reach for most residents.

Click here to see America’s 25 least affordable housing markets.
Click here to see the detailed findings and methodology.

Trading Volume In Forex, a must needed guide

Trading Volume In Forex, a must needed guide

Hello, Forex Traders!

Have you ever traded futures and/or stocks?

Irrelevant of the answer, everyone knows how important volume is the analysis of stocks and futures. Volume, open interest and price action are the key components in trading decisions.

Did you notice that volume does not have the same importance as in stocks and futures? Or, in fact, did you ever use the volume on your Forex chart? How is volume measured in the Forex market? Does the Forex market use volume levels as well? We are going to discuss all of these questions and more. Please write down your own experiences in the comment section down below.

By the way, don’t forget to read last week’s article on the “Path to Forex Trading Mastery”. It is well worth your time as you will be able to identify how advanced your trading is and how you can move on to the next level!

volumn

VOLUME MEASUREMENT

The Forex market is a decentralized market, which means that there is no formula for volume or method of keeping track of the number of contract and contract sizes, such as in the stock market. The Forex market measures volume by counting the tick movements. The logic behind this is straightforward:

a)      Price moves up and down in ticks

b)      The Forex market cannot measure how many contracts are sold, but it can measure how many ticks price moves up or down in any given time frame

c)       It can still be measured by measuring how many ticks price moves up and down

d)      Therefore, irrespective of how many transactions have been completed to make price move, the net effect will be measured

It is the equivalent of focusing on the next result instead of analyzing the process. The volume measurement in the Forex market is looking at how much price moves within a certain period and it does not care how many or few buying and selling transactions are in fact needed to make that price move 1 tick. All it knows is how many ticks it moved, regardless of the fact if 100 trades were involved or 10,000.

HOW TO USE VOLUME

Price action is always our primary focus and we should never forget that!! Write it down on a piece of paper, if need be, with a thick yellow mark: price is the number 1 measurement! Almost everything is derived from price and calculated based on price, so using price action as the primary source for decisions is only logical.

Using volume to define trading decisions makes sense if it is used as a confirmation. Here are its primary advantages:

1)      CONFIRM TREND STRENGTH: Volume can confirm the trend direction as traders want to see increased volume in the direction of the trend and decreased levels of volume when the currency pair is correcting in the opposite direction of the trend.

  1. For an uptrend, this means increased volume when the price is moving up and decreased volume when the price is moving down.
  2. For a downtrend, this means increased volume when the price is moving down and decreased volume when the price is moving up.

2)      IDENTIFY TREND WEAKNESS: If price is reaching new levels of extremes (higher highs or lower lows), but volume is not confirming and supporting those new price levels, then this could provide first warning signals that the trend is weakening (retracement can be expected) or ending (reversal potential, or sideways / range movement). Read here more information how to interpret divergence.

3)      BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION: During a consolidation, volume measurements typically are low. If volume picks up upon the break of that consolidation pattern (wedge, triangle, flag, etc), then the volume is confirming a higher chance of a sustainable breakout. Read more on trading breakouts here. 

In previous articles of mine, we have discussed how to interpret the above-mentioned elements. Please go to these links for detailed and in-depth information:

A)     How to trade with oscillators 

B)      Keeping trading simple 

C)      The secret in becoming the best Forex trader 

D)     How to build a winning trading strategy 

ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION

Accumulation is a phase when buyers are controlling the market. If the volume is increased when the market is correcting in a downtrend, then this typically means that more buyers are stepping into the market and a reversal could occur. Usually, these are confirmed when:

a)      Volume increases compared to the day before but closing prices are higher

b)      Price hardly moves down, even though volume has increased

Distribution is a phase when sellers are controlling the market. If the volume is increased when the market is correcting in an uptrend, then this typically means that more sellers are stepping into the market and a reversal could occur. Usually, these are confirmed when:

a)      Volume increases compared to the day before but closing prices are lower

b)      Price hardly moves up, even though volume has increased

There is an indicator that measures this accumulation/distribution balance and is called Accumulation/Distribution (AD). It is calculated as follows:

AD  = ((Close – Open) / (High – Low)) * Volume

If the indicator is falling then it indicates distribution (selling) of the currency. If the indicator is rising then it indicates accumulation (buying) of the currency.

METHODS TO CALCULATE VOLUME

Here is a list of tools a Forex trader can choose from.

trading decision

VOLUME:

The most logical place to start is the volume indicator. This tool calculates the number of ticks which a currency moves up and down. It is often used in other calculations as well. For instance, the AD methodology mentioned in the paragraph above includes volume as part of its basic parameters.

ON BALANCE VOLUME (OBV):

The tool was developed by Joe Granville and is used to detect whether the volume is bearish or bullish oriented. OBV marks the particular volume of the day as a bearish or bullish depending whether the day has been bearish and bullish. It then adds/detracts that volume to the running open total. The total then indicates the overall sentiment of the market.

MONEY FLOW INDEX:

The money flow index shows the money flow and is calculated in a few steps. I recommend going to this link to read the steps yourself. 

MARKET FACILITATION INDEX (MFI):

The MFI is created by trader Bill Williams and is based on volume as well. The MFI is calculated by:

MFI = (high – low) / volume

The formula is very simple, yet provides various interpretations in combination with volume. There are 4 different combinations based on MFI and volume. The color codes have the following meaning:

COLOR                         MFI / VOLUME                                MEANING           B.WILLIAMS DESCRIPTION

1)      Green                   MFI UP / VOLUME UP                  TREND CONT     GREEN

2)      Brown                  MFI DOWN / VOLUME DOWN  TREND END        FADE

3)      Blue                      MFI UP / VOLUME DOWN          SPIKES                  FAKE

4)      Pink                      MFI DOWN / VOLUME UP          START                   SQUAT

Green indicates a strong trend continuation mode. Brown indicates a potential area of the trend ending. Blue occurs in environments when a market spikes into 1 direction, often causing confusion about the trend direction. Pink indicates the beginning of a trend continuation or reversal.

These are the volume tools you can use in the Forex market.

Remember, the volume is important for the analysis of stocks and futures. Volume, open interest and price action are the key components in trading decisions. Please let us know your opinion down below!

Thanks for reading and for sharing the article!

Have a great weekend and Good Trading!

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Bitcoin on the Rise, New Weekly High

Bitcoin on the Rise, New Weekly High

Within the last 72 hours, bitcoin has managed an upward move of more than $300, securing a new Bitstamp daily high of $2,788.89. Current sentiment is somewhat bullish and most medium, small, and micro-cap altcoins seem to be suffering.

Volume is picking up nicely despite the increase in price. Premiums have also stabilized accordingly across the board between Bitfinex, Bitstamp, BTC-e, Huobi and Kraken. LakeBTC has a premium that is $100 above the previously mentioned five exchanges while OKCoin is even higher, more than $200 above the majority of competing exchanges.

Since Monday’s Bitstamp low of $2,460.51, there has been a rise of more than 13% in price. This is slightly less than the preceding leg up, which was an impressive 26.08% during a similar period of 48 hours. It may be a sign of momentum slowing down, but once again volume appears to holding regardless.

Intersecting trend lines show $2,480.21 as a focal point that may require additional attention. Any dips below this level are in all likelihood going to be a strong signal for the end of the ensuing upward trend. This would of course require a prior shattering of the $2,578.41 price point with a subsequent plunge below $2,421.14, $2,398.32, $2,195.63 support levels and the weekly low of $2,120.

The market has seen a steady push past most of the Gann Fan angles and only a breach of the diagonal line at 8/1 is needed for a final drive to the all-time high of $2,980.

Fibonacci levels for the current trading range are not lining up exactly with the formerly mentioned support levels. However, the $2,578.41 support seems to be the closest to the Fibonacci 0.382 line. Interestingly, the 1.618 Fibonacci level is just slightly above the $2,980 all-time high.

RSI is neutral at the moment with the MACD noticeably tightening movement without appearing overbought or oversold. Substantial divergence is present with the Williams %R indicator, which is rather low at present. OBV is descending steadily with today’s stable trading volume and price movement.

Bitcoin started trading on June 18th, at $2,651.37 (GMT 00:00 – Bitstamp) and has since moved in an upward trading range from the Monday daily low of $2,460.51 (GMT 20:00) to today’s new weekly high of $2,801 (GMT 04:00).