by Bill McBride on 9/29/2017 04:39:00 PM
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined to 0.99% in August, from 1.00% in July. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.24% in August 2016.
This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since December 2007.
These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”.
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
Click on graph for larger image
By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (4% of portfolio), 2.65% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (7% of portfolio), 5.71% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2017 (89% of portfolio), only 0.32% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through poor performing loans from the bubble years.
In the short term – over the next several months – the delinquency rate will probably increase slightly due to the hurricanes. After the hurricane bump, maybe the rate will decline another 0.3 percentage points or so to a cycle bottom, but this is pretty close to normal.
Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.