CVS, Aetna Deal Could Spark ‘Merger Mania’

CVS, Aetna Deal Could Spark ‘Merger Mania’

‘s proposed tie-up with could unleash a wave of deals in the health-care industry, analysts say. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that CVS has made an offer to buy the health insurer for $66 billion, a deal that would help fortify the companies against expected entrance into the pharmacy business. The proposed deal has analysts and […]

Next Week

Next Week

Next Week

October 27, 2017

Central Banks: The identity of the next Federal Reserve Chairperson is expected to be revealed next week. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday for its penultimate policy review of 2017. Other central bank policy meetings are scheduled at the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Czech National Bank. A majority of analysts expect to see the first British central bank interest rate hike in a decade. The BOJ will be publishing its Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices with updated macroeconomic forecasts. Press conferences are scheduled after the BOJ and BOE meetings, presided over by BOJ Governor Kuroda and BOE Governor Carney. Fed officials also speaking late in the week include Kashhari and Bostic.

Clocks Time Change in Europe: Daylight savings time will end early on October 29. This will temporarily narrow the time difference with North America by an hour.

Holidays: All Saints Day on Wednesday in much of Europe, All Soul’s Day in Mexico and Brazil on Thursday, and Japan’s Culture Day on Friday.

Purchasing Manager Surveys: A slew of October surveys will be reported during the week covering manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities.

Scheduled U.S. Economic Statistical Releases: Quarterly productivity, unit labor costs and employment cost index. Monthly personal income and spending, PCE price deflator, ADP estimate of private jobs, Labor Department labor force survey, Dallas Fed manufacturing index, Chicago regional PMI, Case Shiller house price index, Conference Board consumer confidence index, trade balance, construction spending, trade balance, factory orders, and motor vehicle sales. Weekly jobless insurance claims, consumer comfort, mortgage applications, energy inventories, and chain store sales.

Japanese Data: Retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, construction orders, unemployment, auto production and sales, small business sentiment, consumer confidence, real household spending and income, and the monetary base.

Other Selected Asian Releases: South Korean retail sales, industrial production and consumer confidence. Thailand’s trade balance, CPI and PPI. Indonesian consumer prices and Hong Kong retail sales.

Euroland: Third-quarter GDP. Retail sales, unemployment, consumer prices, economic sentiment and the index of leading economic indicators.

Members of the Euro Area: German CPI, retail sales and unemployment. French GDP and PPI. Italian CPI, PPI and jobless rate. Spanish current account, unemployment, GDP and consumer prices. Cypriot, Greek, and Austrian producer prices. Portuguese retail sales, industrial production and consumer confidence. Austrian GDP and unemployment. Belgian GDP, Finnish trade balance, Irish unemployment, and Cypriot industrial output.

U.K. and Switzerland: British consumer confidence, shop prices, Halifax house price index and money growth. Swiss retail sales, consumer confidence, and index of leading economic indicators.

Nordic Europe: Norwegian unemployment and retail sales. Icelandic PPI.

Eastern Europe: Czech and Hungarian trade balances. Romanian and Hungarian producer prices. Czech unemployment.

Canada, Brazil and Mexico: Canadian labor statistics, PPI, and trade balance. Brazilian industrial output, unemployment and trade balance. Mexican GDP.

Australia and New Zealand: Australian money and credit growth, new home sales, trade balance and building consents. New Zealand 3Q labor statistics, business sentiment and building permits.

Turkey and South Africa: Turkish and South African trade balances. Turkey’s CPI and PPI. South African unemployment and money growth.

Copyright 2017, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.

Tags: Economic Data Calendar




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November: Trend following tendencies

November: Trend following tendencies

November  is  one of the best performing months for the major stock indexes and also the beginning of a strong multi-month stretch across all of the stock indexes. It is the month many technicians who subscribe to the adage “sell in May and go away” choose to re-enter the market.

Jamie Dimon Should Learn About Lemons

Jamie Dimon Should Learn About Lemons

A tale of two James’.

What does this guy:


Captain James Cook

…have in common with this guy:

Two things:

  1. Same first name, and
  2. similar opportunities.

Let me explain.

Captain James was probably just another ruffian salty with poor hygiene and bad teeth. But you know what the catalyst to his fame was? And by extension what turned muddy old Britain into an empire?

These:

You see, the thing holding back Captain Jamie from extended ocean going voyaging was a nasty disease called scurvy. We know now that Jamie was dead eager to get out there and bring nasty European diseases to natives in faraway lands and upon arrival announce, “By George it’s nice and lush here, we’ll take it.”

And so when Scottish physician James Lind figured out via controlled experiments that, in fact, a diet including vitamin C rich foods cured this pesky disease, the advantage presented to sailors was enormous. After all, those poor sods used to routinely lose up to 60% of their crews to scurvy on voyages.

Imagine setting out knowing such odds.

Da Gama, for instance, lost 116 if his 170 crew, and Magellan 208 of his 230. You’d have better odds skulling a bottle of Absolut and then playing chicken with Mack trucks on a freeway.

It took the Brits about 40 years to put this knowledge to good use, but it has been argued by historians to have been a catalyst to the founding of the British Empire. At the time, there were plenty other countries who could quite easily have stacked up some lemon juice in the hull, set sail, and begun planting flags. But they didn’t.

Isn’t that amazing? The bloody British Empire owes its fortunes to the humble lemon. And, by golly, old Jamie Cook took advantage of that didn’t he? And the rest, as they say, is now history.

And this brings me to the other Jamie.

You see, Jamie (the old Brit Jamie), used something quite revolutionary at the time to alter the course of history and become a major player in it.

And Jamie (the not so old yank), Captain of the JPM ship has a similar opportunity today.

It’s why he should learn about lemons.

It seems he knows little about modern day “lemons” and their properties. Here’s some major ignorance points he shared with us all on his views just recently.

I think Alex Gurevich said it best:

I was mentioning this all to my lovely wife the other night, and you know what she said?

She said that if he was a she (Jamie that is), he probably wouldn’t be so arrogant and may look at the manual. Which in this case is, of course, Satoshi’s white paper.

And, as usual, she’s right. When we got our last DVD thingy player she immediately pulled out the manual to learn about how it all works so that when she wants to, she’ll be able to play exactly what she wants without delay and mess and fuss.

Me? I stabbed away at the buttons, safe in the knowledge that even if I’m trying to get the Blu-ray to play, I’ll probably get the USB figured out, and who knows what excellent films are on the thumb drive I’ve shoved in there.

I console myself with the fact I’m male, and as such, reading the manual is against my religion. But I tend to make up for it by diving in and learning by doing.

Jamie, bless him, isn’t even prepared to do either, and that’s fine.

It just means that when Bitcoin hits another all time high and history books are written (by the robots, of course), he won’t even make the pages. He’ll simply be like all those other sailors in Portugal, Spain, France, and the Netherlands who, in the 1800s, were sailing around at the same time Captain James Cook was.

And you know what? We don’t know anything about them, and neither will future generations know anything about the present Captain of the USS enterprise JPMorgan’s Jamie “I don’t know isht about Bitcoin” Dimon.

And that’s probably how it should be.

– Chris

“Do just once what others say you cannot do, and you will never pay attention to their limitations again.” — Captain James Cook

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 233,000

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 233,000

by Bill McBride on 10/26/2017 08:34:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 239,500, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 248,250 to 248,500.

Claims taking procedures continue to be severely disrupted in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a result of power outages and infrastructure damage caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria.
emphasis added

The previous week was revised up.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 239,500.

This was close to the consensus forecast.

Trade Setups Based on the Candlestick Formations

Trade Setups Based on the Candlestick Formations

With the start of a new month, Forex traders have the luxury of analyzing new monthly candlesticks and patterns.

In January of 2015, there was a wide range of valuable information. This post reviews those interesting opportunities and conclusions on the majors which we can learn from for future trades to find setups based on candlesticks formations of the major forex pairs.

Candlestick Formations

EURUSD

The EURUSD monthly candle of January 2015 was not only heavily bearish, but it was also a massive candle: more than 1,000 pip from high to low. This has been by far the largest bearish candle since the downtrend started in May 2014.

The wick at the bottom candle represents +/- 185 pips which are 18.5% of the entire candle. For the bears, it was certainly a decently strong close but not as sturdy as July ’14, August ’14, and December ’14 candlesticks.

2- 2- 2015 eurusd week

When analyzing the weekly chart, the EURUSD  showed bullish candlestick patterns for the first time a 7 week period. It is called a Harami candlestick and the pattern indicates a potential bullish reversal. This could set the tone for a bullish EURUSD this upcoming week.

2- 2- 2015 eurusd day

When I place a Fibonacci tool on the Harami weekly candle then the -27.2 and -61.8 Fibonacci levels (green Fib) are the key targets for the following reasons:

  • The previous consolidation zone (purple circle) could act as a resistance zone;
  • A zigzag correction would be completed (green arrows);
  • The bigger trend remains down (orange arrow);
  • The January candle is bearish and when the price reaches the Fibonacci targets (orange Fib), it will have retraced back to the 38.2 and 50% Fib levels of the monthly candle.

The path of the highest probability for the EURUSD, therefore, seems to be a bullish zigzag followed by downtrend continuation. This analysis is highly dependent on the NFP figures. The other majors are showing a different situation.

OTHER MAJOR FOREX PAIRS

The GBPUSD bearishness seems substantially less interesting to me due to various reasons:

  1. It has a GBP interest rate announcement on Thursday;
  2. Monthly support is close by;
  3. January’s candle was bearish but less impulsive than the EURUSD;
  4. The weekly candle closed bullish as well;
  5. The GBP has been showing strength against other currencies.

2- 2- 2015 gbpusd week

The USDJPY bullishness was certainly not visible on the USDJPY during January. Its candle closed bearish and indicates a decent to high chance of further consolidation. I am expecting the triangle to continue before any bullish (or bearish break) occurs.

2- 2- 2015 USDJPY 

Contrary to the EURUSD and GBPUSD, the AUDUSD not only had very big bearish candlestick patterns in January candle but also has a bearish weekly candle the previous week. There was no crucial bounce for the AUDUSD and hence I am expecting a more bearish trend. Technically speaking I am looking for more downside continuation upon the retracement of the monthly candle (orange Fib). The best turning spot is the 50% due to the resistance on the left.

2- 2- 2015 audusd 

What do you think of this tutorial on trade setups based on the candlestick formations of major forex pairs?

Wish you Happy Hunting!

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Bitcoin Almost Back to $6,000 After Monstrous Dip, Bitcoin Gold Support, and the SegWit2x Fork

Bitcoin Almost Back to $6,000 After Monstrous Dip, Bitcoin Gold Support, and the SegWit2x Fork

Bitcoin has had a vibrant week, which began with a vicious but prompt plunge to the $5,101 weekly low. This was soon followed by a rebound that pushed the price up to the new $6,180 all-time high. Volume has been strong since then, although selling was until recently, outpacing buy orders by a wider margin, in just these past few days alone. Caution is warranted, considering how unpredictable the implementation of the upcoming forks might end up being, especailly when it comes to bitcoin’s future price advancement and momentum.

I have to strongly disagree that the Saudi prince primarily impacted today’s downturn. It is more likely, that it was chiefly instigated by the hourly countdown to the listing of BTG on the YoBit exchange, and from the uncertainty of the actual event. Even though the exchange is hated by many, there were no other relevant trading events in the past 24 hours, aside from a vast swat of reiterated news pieces, which were mostly just quotes from the latest batch of talking heads. The swings in bitcoin’s price seem to be correlated with the volatility of bitcoin gold’s buy support as well, to a degree and for the time being at least.

Bittrex will be crediting accounts with BTG tomorrow. However, trading will not be possible via a seperate market, so users will have to withdraw to other sources (exchanges and/or wallets). Just as it was with the bicoin cash fork, the parity will remain the same; one BTG will be credited per one BTC during the snapshot block. There are many points of contention when it comes to the latest offshoot of bitcoin, one of the main concerns being the absence of replay protection, and a rather sizable developer premine (100,000 BTG).

For seasoned crypto enthusiast and traders, the forks and accompanying terminology do not really present anything new or challenging. I can only speculate as to how this all looks to newcomers and people who are less tech savvy.

BTG futures are also tradable on the Bleutrade exchange, while HitBTC is offering B2X trading pairs (B2X/BTC, B2X/ETH, and B2X/USDT). It should be noted that these SegWit2x futures are currently not available anywhere else.

Involuntary browser mining has become more rampant in the last few weeks, with non-torrent sites joining the fray too. Monero is commonly used as the currency of choice in these cases, and checking cpu and gpu usage while browsing, is the most simplest way to confirm if your device resources are being forcibly exploited.

Ever since the $6,180 all-time high was achieved on October 21 (GMT 16:30), bitcoin has kept to its downward trend. Four reversals prominently stood out during this lead-out period, the last one happening today at 15:30 GMT, when the $5,617.55 daily low was touched. The price has recovered in the meantime, and was close to $6,000 at the time of writing.

If you have any questions and comments on bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.