Zillow Forecast: "June Case-Shiller Forecast: Rare Monthly Declines Expected"

by Bill McBride on 7/26/2017 04:41:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Svenja Gudell at Zillow: June Case-Shiller Forecast: Rare Monthly Declines Expected

Both the 10- and 20-city S&P Case-Shiller indices are expected to fall in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, declines that would mark just the third and second months, respectively, in the past five years in which the seasonally adjusted indices have fallen month-over-month.

All three primary Case-Shiller indices grew at a slower or flat annual pace in May compared to the previous month, and Zillow’s Case-Shiller forecast predicts that slowdown continued into June. The 10- and 20-city indices are each expected to fall 0.1 percent from May (seasonally adjusted), with annual growth falling from 4.9 percent and 5.7 percent to 4.8 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively. Monthly growth in the U.S. National Index is expected to remain flat in June (seasonally adjusted) and grow 5.3 percent year-over-year, down from 5.6 percent annual growth in May.

Zillow’s full forecast for May Case-Shiller data is shown below. These forecasts are based on today’s April Case-Shiller data release and the June 2017 Zillow Home Value Index. The June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, August 29.

The year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index will probably be smaller in June than in May.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller