US stocks on verge of new bear market?

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The overnight reaction to new N.Korea missile threats was muted, suggesting that pessimism remains alive and well. A recovery attempt wouldn’t yet have been credible, anyway. But fresh lows into the weekend in gold are rarely a bottom.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s plunge was further retraced Thursday night, testing its 1.2030 corrective bounce limit up to 1.2059. Dipping into the afternoon stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Thursday’s close, still likely to resume the decline.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging overnight around 17.00 was even narrower intraday Friday. The consolidation of Wednesday’s break may have been extended as a weekend hedge against missiles flying, but has no other reason to avoid extending the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight to retest 154-16 still stopped short of the 154-30 buy signal that would reverse the trend up. So, the door remains open to a more thorough test of the decline’s 153-14 maximum pullback limit to form a more durable bottom.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The narrowest intraday range since last Friday, which had also developed around 50.50, didn’t suggest the current basing is inclined to launch a new rally leg.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s plunge to 2.95 didn’t extend down Friday, but neither was it rejected, let alone recovered. And avoiding an extension down to 2.84 all but required a quick reversal back up above 3.02. Having avoided a second consecutive lower close, recovering 3.02 through Monday morning could still be credible for extending higher.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes “Trading Plan” and more each session at the blog