Treasuries fail to with confirm higher close

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)): Despite probing higher after Tuesday’s close, Wednesday’s open gapped down and eventually fell further to 1223.00 support, whose recovery through the close maintains potential for resuming the recovery. Closing  back under 1216.50 would instead launch a new downleg.

Crude oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)): Gapping up above 39.05 Wednesday was appropriate for rejecting Tuesday’s non-trending gap down that only hovered at prior lows. Initially extending higher also tested the 39.55 buy signal, but its reaction down filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s 38.35 close.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)): Closing above Monday’s 15.38 high Wednesday, would have confirmed Tuesday’s recovery of 15.25, but initially probing above 15.40 was retraced back down to and through 15.25. Closing above 15.38 would still target 15.88.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)): Tuesday’s close above both 163-16 and Friday’s 164-10 prior high failed to confirm with a higher close Wednesday. The intraday reaction down to 162-23 recovered 163-16 whose recovery through the close would avoid greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)): Extending higher Wednesday not only fulfilled the 1.1335 attraction, but also probed fresh highs up to 1.1391. Having begun the high’s retest from only a relatively shallow pullback, a topping pattern may now form and trigger back under 1.1319.

Natural gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)): Still firming Wednesday not only confirmed the recovery above 1.85 targeting 1.99, but also greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength likely either to extend sharply higher, or else first absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes “Trading Plan” and more each session at the blog