Metals’ reply to USD’s small rally

Gold, silver and mining stocks finally moved lower after several days of higher prices and one can say the opposite about the USD Index. Was this just a pause or a beginning of a bigger downtrend?

The latter is quite likely and the reasons come from the precious metals charts as well as from the one of the USD Index. In short, the points that we made in the previous alerts this week remain up-to-date, especially those that we discussed yesterday regarding the “when” factor. We will move to this issue in a few minutes and in the meantime, let’s start today’s discussion with gold’s short-term chart.

Gold

Source: http://stockcharts.com

Gold moved visibly below the April highs and also below the rising red support/resistance line based on the daily closing prices. The breakout above it was therefore invalidated.

The RSI moved lower after reaching 70 and the Stochastic indicator flashed a sell signal by moving below its moving average.

In other words, the technical picture for the short term deteriorated based on yesterday’s session. The long-term picture has been bearish and it remains bearish today – yesterday’s session doesn’t seem to have changed much in that regard.

Mining stocks also moved lower on increasing volume, which is a bearish sign on its own. Another sign comes from the closing price – the GDX closed back below the May high (in terms of the daily closing price). That’s important because that was the only breakout that we’ve seen in miners. They didn’t move above any long-term resistance and they didn’t even move above their declining resistance line that we marked in black on the above chart. With the only breakout being invalidated, the outlook is clearly bearish.

As far as the “Why is the time running out?” question is concerned, the reply is provided on the USD Index chart.

USD Index and Its Implications

 

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