At one time, AUDUSD downtrend offered an interesting chart to search for short setups. In fact, the price had already approached the 38.2 retracement level, which could have easily become a turning spot for downtrend continuation.
Looking at the 4-hour price action, it becomes clear that several candlesticks were showing struggle at the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level but bullish engulfing twins could have annulled the bearish signals.
I, therefore, kept a close eye on the upcoming 4-hour candles looking to see if the price showed renewed bearish signals or will it keep retracing higher.
In both cases, I am specifically looked for shorts only because of the downtrend (see blue trend line). Here are the two bearish scenarios I am counting with:
- A break of the 4-hour candle low (green circle) for a break out trade to lower levels (orange arrow);
- A bounce at the Fibonacci confluence of Fib retracement and Fib target:
- The 50% Fib retracement and the -27.2 Fib target (red circle);
- The 61.8% Fib retracement and the -61.8 Fib target (dark red circle).
In both scenarios, it is useful to wait for a candlestick pattern to confirm that price is bouncing at the resistance spot or pushing through the support level. This helpful tactic has a high rate of ensuring a decent entry at the right time.
The same upside movement could also occur on the NZDUSD. The Kiwi was in a big downtrend as well but recent choppiness has put bearish ambitions in the freezer.
Looking at the Fibonacci Retracement Level
Looking at the upside momentum (green arrow), the break of the downtrend line (blue) and the double bottom (purple circle) at the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level (light blue), the price could be ready for a bullish breakout (blue arrows) above the resistance line (red).
I was interested in taking a long upon the break of resistance (aft candlestick confirmation) and/or taking a short at the Fibonacci targets. There are two valid options for catching the bullish counter trend breakout setup:
- One is to look for a daily candle pushing through the trend line;
- The other is to monitor the same bullish breakout but on a lower time frame such as the 4-hour chart.
The advantage of the H4, in this case, is the potential for an earlier entry and hence more space to targets as well.
When I zoom into the 4-hour chart I am able to see both a bull flag and contracting triangle type of chart pattern forex. The break below support and the break above resistance would indicate the break of the contracting triangle. A break of both the resistance and support levels will be the trigger I am looking for trade setup. Also, in this case, a strong candle is warranted: close near low or high, sizeable candle and the majority of candle outside of trend line.
Do not be shy and tell us what you think of the above! Have you traded these pairs in the past? Do you currently trade them? What is YOUR reason for perhaps not trading them?
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