by Bill McBride on 10/19/2017 12:30:00 PM
Earlier from the Philly Fed: October 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
Manufacturing firms reported continued growth in regional manufacturing in October. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment all remained positive this month. Both of the survey’s current labor market indicators showed notable improvement. The indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggest that firms remained optimistic about future growth.
The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased 4 points to a reading of 27.9 and is now at its highest reading since May … Firms reported, on balance, an increase in manufacturing employment and longer workweeks this month.
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:
Click on graph for larger image.
The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through October), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through September) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through September (right axis).
This suggests the ISM manufacturing index will show solid expansion in October.