Big 6.3-Point Jump Last Month in U.S.-Minus-Ezone Services Differential

Big 6.3-Point Jump Last Month in U.S.-Minus-Ezone Services Differential

October 5, 2016

The U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index leaped 5.7 points to 57.1 in September, an eleven-month high. Euroland’s services PMI, in contrast, fell 0.6 points to a 21-month low. The spread between those two September readings of +4.9 points was 6.3 points greater than August’s negative differential of -1.1.

There is one caveat, however. Markit Economics, which runs the PMI surveys in the euro area, also compiles a U.S. services purchasing managers index, and such improved 1.3 points to 52.3 in September, a considerably smaller move than the Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index.

The ISM report showed broad strength, with business activity jumping 8.5 points to 60.3, new business climbing 8.6 points to 60.0, the jobs diffusion index rising 6.5 points, and prices increasing by 2.2 points. Among reporting euro area members, the indices for Ireland and Germany dropped to 39-month lows, and the Italian and Spanish readings were at 4- and 2-month lows. France was the only bright spot with a reading of 53.3, 2.4 points better than Germany’s level.

The last column in the table below adds the manufacturing and service-sector PMI spreads. At +3.8, such is 7.5 points more U.S.-advantageous than in August and the highest since June.

PMIs U.S. Ezone U.S. Ezone Sum of
Services Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads
Jan 2012 56.8 50.4 +6.4 54.1 48.8 +5.3 +10.9
Feb 56.1 48.8 +7.3 51.9 49.0 +2.9 +10.2
March 55.0 49.2 +5.8 53.3 47.7 +5.6 +11.4
April 53.7 46.9 +6.8 54.1 45.9 +8.2 +15.0
May 54.1 46.7 +7.4 52.5 45.1 +7.4 +14.8
June 52.7 47.1 +5.6 50.2 45.1 +5.1 +10.7
July 52.9 47.9 +5.0 50.5 44.0 +6.5 +11.5
August 54.3 47.2 +7.1 50.7 45.1 +5.6 +12.7
Sept 55.2 46.1 +9.1 51.6 46.1 +5.5 +14.6
October 54.8 46.0 +8.8 51.7 45.4 +6.3 +15.1
November 54.8 46.7 +8.1 49.9 46.2 +3.7 +11.8
December 55.7 47.8 +7.9 50.2 46.1 +4.1 +12.0
Jan 2013 55.2 48.6 +6.6 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +11.8
February 54.8 47.9 +8.1 53.1 47.9 +5.2 +13.3
March 54.5 46.4 +8.1 51.5 46.8 +4.7 +12.8
April 53.8 47.0 +6.8 50.0 46.7 +3.3 +10.1
May 54.0 47.2 +6.8 50.0 48.3 +1.7 +8.5
June 53.4 48.3 +5.1 52.5 48.8 +3.7 +8.8
July 55.9 49.8 +6.1 54.9 50.3 +4.6 +10.7
August 57.9 50.7 +7.2 56.3 51.4 +4.9 +12.1
Sept 54.5 52.2 +2.3 56.0 51.1 +4.9 +7.2
October 55.1 51.6 +3.5 56.6 51.3 +5.3 +8.8
November 54.1 51.2 +2.9 57.0 51.6 +5.4 +8.3
December 53.0 51.0 +2.0 56.5 52.7 +3.8 +5.8
Jan 2014 54.0 51.6 +2.4 51.3 54.0 -2.7 -0.3
February 52.5 52.6 -0.1 54.3 53.2 +1.1 +1.0
March 53.7 52.1 +1.6 54.4 53.0 +1.4 +3.0
April 55.3 53.1 +2.2 55.3 53.4 +1.9 +4.1
May 56.1 53.2 +2.9 55.6 52.2 +3.4 +6.3
June 56.3 52.8 +3.5 55.7 51.8 +3.9 +7.4
July 57.9 54.2 +3.7 56.4 51.8 +4.6 +8.3
August 58.6 53.1 +5.5 58.1 50.7 +7.4 +12.9
Sept 58.1 52.4 +5.7 56.1 50.3 +5.8 +11.5
October 56.9 52.1 +4.8 57.9 50.6 +7.3 +12.1
November 58.8 51.1 +7.7 57.6 50.1 +7.5 +15.2
December 56.5 51.6 +4.9 55.1 50.6 +4.5 +9.4
Jan 2015 56.7 52.7 +4.0 53.5 51.0 +2.5 +6.5
February 57.1 53.7 +4.4 52.3 51.0 +1.3 +5.7
March 56.9 54.2 +2.7 52.3 52.2 +0.1 +2.8
April 57.5 54.1 +3.4 51.6 52.0 -0.4 +3.0
May 55.9 53.8 +2.1 53.1 52.2 +0.9 +3.0
June 56.2 54.4 +1.8 53.1 53.1 0.0 +1.8
July 59.6 54.0 +5.6 51.9 52.4 -0.5 +5.1
August

Sept

October

58.3

56.7

58.3

54.4

53.7

54.1

+3.9

+3.0

+4.2

51.0

50.0

49.4

52.3

52.0

52.3

-1.3

-2.0

-2.9

+2.6

+1.0

+1.3

November

December

Jan 2016

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

56.6

55.8

53.5

53.4

54.5

55.7

52.9

56.5

55.5

51.4

57.1

54.2

54.2

53.6

53.3

53.1

53.1

53.3

52.8

52.9

52.8

52.6

+1.7

+1.6

-0.1

+0.1

+1.4

+2.6

-0.4

+3.7

+2.6

-1.4

+4.9

48.4

48.0

48.2

49.5

51.8

50.8

51.3

53.2

52.6

49.4

51.5

52.8

53.2

52.3

51.2

51.6

51.7

51.5

52.8

52.0

51.7

52.6

-4.4

-5.2

-4.1

-1.7

+0.2

-0.9

-0.2

+0.4

+0.6

-2.3

-1.1

-2.7

-3.6

-4.2

-1.6

+1.6

+1.7

-0.6

+4.1

+3.2

-3.7

+3.8

Copyright 2016, Larry Greenberg.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

Tags: U.S. and eurozone PMIs




ShareThis

Both comments and pings are currently closed.