America’s 25 Least Affordable Housing Markets

America’s 25 Least Affordable Housing Markets

In the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis, housing became much more affordable as prices dropped. Since peaking in 2012, however, affordability has rapidly declined. Inventory of for-sale homes fell faster in May than it has in years, and home prices have risen substantially in turn.

Homeownership in the United States has declined in recent years. The homeownership rate reached 63.6% this year, nearly the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking the data over 50 years ago, and down from a peak of 69.2% in 2004.

Some areas are far less affordable than others, and in some parts of the country, typical rents and home prices are only affordable to high earners in the area. Based on data provided by real estate data company ATTOM Data Solutions and 24/7 Wall St.’s calculations, we identified the 25 counties where housing is the least affordable relative to average area wages.

Of the 25 least affordable housing markets, 16 are located in California, with many clustered around the Silicon Valley area. Many people move to these areas for the specialized, high-paying jobs available. However, even with some of the highest incomes in the country, typical housing costs are well out of reach for most residents.

Click here to see America’s 25 least affordable housing markets.
Click here to see the detailed findings and methodology.

Trading Volume In Forex, a must needed guide

Trading Volume In Forex, a must needed guide

Hello, Forex Traders!

Have you ever traded futures and/or stocks?

Irrelevant of the answer, everyone knows how important volume is the analysis of stocks and futures. Volume, open interest and price action are the key components in trading decisions.

Did you notice that volume does not have the same importance as in stocks and futures? Or, in fact, did you ever use the volume on your Forex chart? How is volume measured in the Forex market? Does the Forex market use volume levels as well? We are going to discuss all of these questions and more. Please write down your own experiences in the comment section down below.

By the way, don’t forget to read last week’s article on the “Path to Forex Trading Mastery”. It is well worth your time as you will be able to identify how advanced your trading is and how you can move on to the next level!

volumn

VOLUME MEASUREMENT

The Forex market is a decentralized market, which means that there is no formula for volume or method of keeping track of the number of contract and contract sizes, such as in the stock market. The Forex market measures volume by counting the tick movements. The logic behind this is straightforward:

a)      Price moves up and down in ticks

b)      The Forex market cannot measure how many contracts are sold, but it can measure how many ticks price moves up or down in any given time frame

c)       It can still be measured by measuring how many ticks price moves up and down

d)      Therefore, irrespective of how many transactions have been completed to make price move, the net effect will be measured

It is the equivalent of focusing on the next result instead of analyzing the process. The volume measurement in the Forex market is looking at how much price moves within a certain period and it does not care how many or few buying and selling transactions are in fact needed to make that price move 1 tick. All it knows is how many ticks it moved, regardless of the fact if 100 trades were involved or 10,000.

HOW TO USE VOLUME

Price action is always our primary focus and we should never forget that!! Write it down on a piece of paper, if need be, with a thick yellow mark: price is the number 1 measurement! Almost everything is derived from price and calculated based on price, so using price action as the primary source for decisions is only logical.

Using volume to define trading decisions makes sense if it is used as a confirmation. Here are its primary advantages:

1)      CONFIRM TREND STRENGTH: Volume can confirm the trend direction as traders want to see increased volume in the direction of the trend and decreased levels of volume when the currency pair is correcting in the opposite direction of the trend.

  1. For an uptrend, this means increased volume when the price is moving up and decreased volume when the price is moving down.
  2. For a downtrend, this means increased volume when the price is moving down and decreased volume when the price is moving up.

2)      IDENTIFY TREND WEAKNESS: If price is reaching new levels of extremes (higher highs or lower lows), but volume is not confirming and supporting those new price levels, then this could provide first warning signals that the trend is weakening (retracement can be expected) or ending (reversal potential, or sideways / range movement). Read here more information how to interpret divergence.

3)      BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION: During a consolidation, volume measurements typically are low. If volume picks up upon the break of that consolidation pattern (wedge, triangle, flag, etc), then the volume is confirming a higher chance of a sustainable breakout. Read more on trading breakouts here. 

In previous articles of mine, we have discussed how to interpret the above-mentioned elements. Please go to these links for detailed and in-depth information:

A)     How to trade with oscillators 

B)      Keeping trading simple 

C)      The secret in becoming the best Forex trader 

D)     How to build a winning trading strategy 

ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION

Accumulation is a phase when buyers are controlling the market. If the volume is increased when the market is correcting in a downtrend, then this typically means that more buyers are stepping into the market and a reversal could occur. Usually, these are confirmed when:

a)      Volume increases compared to the day before but closing prices are higher

b)      Price hardly moves down, even though volume has increased

Distribution is a phase when sellers are controlling the market. If the volume is increased when the market is correcting in an uptrend, then this typically means that more sellers are stepping into the market and a reversal could occur. Usually, these are confirmed when:

a)      Volume increases compared to the day before but closing prices are lower

b)      Price hardly moves up, even though volume has increased

There is an indicator that measures this accumulation/distribution balance and is called Accumulation/Distribution (AD). It is calculated as follows:

AD  = ((Close – Open) / (High – Low)) * Volume

If the indicator is falling then it indicates distribution (selling) of the currency. If the indicator is rising then it indicates accumulation (buying) of the currency.

METHODS TO CALCULATE VOLUME

Here is a list of tools a Forex trader can choose from.

trading decision

VOLUME:

The most logical place to start is the volume indicator. This tool calculates the number of ticks which a currency moves up and down. It is often used in other calculations as well. For instance, the AD methodology mentioned in the paragraph above includes volume as part of its basic parameters.

ON BALANCE VOLUME (OBV):

The tool was developed by Joe Granville and is used to detect whether the volume is bearish or bullish oriented. OBV marks the particular volume of the day as a bearish or bullish depending whether the day has been bearish and bullish. It then adds/detracts that volume to the running open total. The total then indicates the overall sentiment of the market.

MONEY FLOW INDEX:

The money flow index shows the money flow and is calculated in a few steps. I recommend going to this link to read the steps yourself. 

MARKET FACILITATION INDEX (MFI):

The MFI is created by trader Bill Williams and is based on volume as well. The MFI is calculated by:

MFI = (high – low) / volume

The formula is very simple, yet provides various interpretations in combination with volume. There are 4 different combinations based on MFI and volume. The color codes have the following meaning:

COLOR                         MFI / VOLUME                                MEANING           B.WILLIAMS DESCRIPTION

1)      Green                   MFI UP / VOLUME UP                  TREND CONT     GREEN

2)      Brown                  MFI DOWN / VOLUME DOWN  TREND END        FADE

3)      Blue                      MFI UP / VOLUME DOWN          SPIKES                  FAKE

4)      Pink                      MFI DOWN / VOLUME UP          START                   SQUAT

Green indicates a strong trend continuation mode. Brown indicates a potential area of the trend ending. Blue occurs in environments when a market spikes into 1 direction, often causing confusion about the trend direction. Pink indicates the beginning of a trend continuation or reversal.

These are the volume tools you can use in the Forex market.

Remember, the volume is important for the analysis of stocks and futures. Volume, open interest and price action are the key components in trading decisions. Please let us know your opinion down below!

Thanks for reading and for sharing the article!

Have a great weekend and Good Trading!

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Bitcoin on the Rise, New Weekly High

Bitcoin on the Rise, New Weekly High

Within the last 72 hours, bitcoin has managed an upward move of more than $300, securing a new Bitstamp daily high of $2,788.89. Current sentiment is somewhat bullish and most medium, small, and micro-cap altcoins seem to be suffering.

Volume is picking up nicely despite the increase in price. Premiums have also stabilized accordingly across the board between Bitfinex, Bitstamp, BTC-e, Huobi and Kraken. LakeBTC has a premium that is $100 above the previously mentioned five exchanges while OKCoin is even higher, more than $200 above the majority of competing exchanges.

Since Monday’s Bitstamp low of $2,460.51, there has been a rise of more than 13% in price. This is slightly less than the preceding leg up, which was an impressive 26.08% during a similar period of 48 hours. It may be a sign of momentum slowing down, but once again volume appears to holding regardless.

Intersecting trend lines show $2,480.21 as a focal point that may require additional attention. Any dips below this level are in all likelihood going to be a strong signal for the end of the ensuing upward trend. This would of course require a prior shattering of the $2,578.41 price point with a subsequent plunge below $2,421.14, $2,398.32, $2,195.63 support levels and the weekly low of $2,120.

The market has seen a steady push past most of the Gann Fan angles and only a breach of the diagonal line at 8/1 is needed for a final drive to the all-time high of $2,980.

Fibonacci levels for the current trading range are not lining up exactly with the formerly mentioned support levels. However, the $2,578.41 support seems to be the closest to the Fibonacci 0.382 line. Interestingly, the 1.618 Fibonacci level is just slightly above the $2,980 all-time high.

RSI is neutral at the moment with the MACD noticeably tightening movement without appearing overbought or oversold. Substantial divergence is present with the Williams %R indicator, which is rather low at present. OBV is descending steadily with today’s stable trading volume and price movement.

Bitcoin started trading on June 18th, at $2,651.37 (GMT 00:00 – Bitstamp) and has since moved in an upward trading range from the Monday daily low of $2,460.51 (GMT 20:00) to today’s new weekly high of $2,801 (GMT 04:00).

Greece – What Comes to Mind?

Greece – What Comes to Mind?

I warn you… I’ll get hate mail for this. I am a bad person.

Perhaps, I spent too much time in European cities because Athens and Greece in particular always failed to impress me.

Ok, they have a lot of crumbly buildings. But so do every other country in the region. Ephesus is more impressive than the Panthenon. The Colosseum more impressive than the Valley of the Temples.

And then there’s the food. It’s terrible. Leaves or cheese, sometimes both, double soaked in oil pretty much sums it up.

If you’re not into crumbling buildings, they offer the islands, which are quite nice, laid back, and fun with those little hilltop villages you see in the postcards, riddled with cobbled streets and fat ladies with missing teeth, smiling at you.

Unfortunately, all this novelty wears thin after about 48 hours and so after some water sports, which you can only do for so long, you’re left exhausted by sex – because let’s face it, you’ve run out of anything else worth doing.

It’s easily the best thing about Greece and I highly recommend it for that reason. It’s cheap, sunny, warm, dysfunctional, and boring… which makes it the perfect place to go for a dirty weekend away.

I realise my tastes are unique, and plenty of people love Greece for all the reasons I don’t. In particular, the Chinese… which is really what this article is about.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll have heard of China’s ambitious One Belt, One Road initiative. It is essentially the restoring of the historic Silk Road established by Genghis Kahn with his arrival in Europe and Alexander the Great who almost reached the Chinese province of Xinjiang.

There is a long history here with the Hellenic world and Eastern Europe having carved mathematics and Indo-European languages along the old Silk Road, and the Greek-Buddhist syncretism which influenced the development of both art and philosophy in China and India.

While Brussels farts around with Brexit and Draghi puzzles a catchy name for the next batshit crazy money printing initiative, China has been steadily and quietly using their massive FX reserves ($3 trillion) to lay the groundwork for future trade and their subsequent geopolitical power that will accompany it.

Take a look at where the money is flowing and why.

When it comes to maritime links, first stop once out of the Suez is Greece. It is for all purposes perfectly located as a gateway to the rest of Europe.

The Chinese, being fiendishly smart, realise this. It’s why they’re going to rule the world within a couple decades.

Ports

China’s COSCO Shipping, owner of the world’s fourth largest container fleet, took a 67% percent stake in Greece’s largest port last year.

As reported by the Nikkei Asian Review:

“The port’s container-handling volume surged more than fivefold in seven years, totaling 3.47 million twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, in 2016. 

When the terminal was still state-run, the Port of Piraeus did not even crack the global top 100 in terms of container volume. Today, it ranks among the world’s 50 biggest container ports.

According to Greek media reports, the port authority’s management team will soon announce new investment plans. The pillars are expected to be a new cruise ship terminal — aimed primarily at wealthy Chinese tourists — and a vessel repair center. One Cosco source said investment over the next five years will “exceed 600 million euros.”

Energy

In December, State Grid Corp., a Chinese power transmission company, agreed to acquire a 24% stake in a subsidiary of Greek state utility Public Power Corp.

And this from Reuters:

“Greek infrastructure development group Copelouzos has signed a deal with China’s Shenhua Group to cooperate in green energy projects and the upgrade of power plants in Greece and other countries, the Greek company said on Friday.

The deal will involve total investment of 3 billion euros ($3.28 billion), Copelouzos said in a statement, without providing further details.”

Military

And last year, a deal was struck whereby (through the Fujian Shipbuilding company) China accesses European technology – in particular, financing naval armament agreements valued at more than $3 billion, which, by the way, represents 7 percent of Greek GDP. Not small.

Greece likes it since it provides another 190,000 new jobs.

Air

As reported by Bloomberg:

“Fosun International Ltd., the Chinese conglomerate that’s part of a venture to transform the former Athens airport site into one of the biggest real-estate projects in Europe, is now turning its attention to Greek tourism.”

And Reuters elaborates:

“China – which has already submitted a bid to buy a majority stake in Piraeus – is also eyeing the construction of an 800 million-euro airport in Crete and the main airport in Athens when the government puts it on sale later this year, Greek officials said. Development Minister Nikos Dendias said the two sides also discussed a high-speed rail project.

China attaches great importance to Greece’s unique geographic advantage of being a gateway to Europe and, in that light, is prepared to intensify its cooperation with Greece in basic infrastructure such as ports, roads, (and) railways.” 

Now here’s what’s interesting…

I speak to a lot of money managers every week, and I can count on my hand just two who, like us, are acquiring Greek assets. This is one extremely uncrowded trade. It’s oh so lonely, which brings an additional level of comfort.

Don’t believe me?

I present to you the Greek Stock market:

Here’s small caps:

Chinese travel to Greece has been surging since around 2013 but this entire party looks like it’s only just getting started.

You tell me what’s going to happen when 1.5 million Chinese tourists start showing up in Athens every year looking for crumbling buildings and fat, toothless, charming ladies selling oil soaked cheese and leaves?

– Chris

“In a world of growing interdependency and challenges, no country can tackle the challenges, also the world’s problems, on its own.” — Xi Jinping

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 36 states in May

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 36 states in May

by Bill McBride on 6/21/2017 03:55:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for May 2017. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased in five, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 78. In the past month, the indexes increased in 36 states, decreased in seven, and remained stable in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 58.

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityClick on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In May, 43 states had increasing activity (including minor increases).

The downturn in 2015 and 2016, in the number of states increasing, was mostly related to the decline in oil prices.   The reason for the recent decrease in the number of states with increasing activity is unclear – and might be revised away.

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and almost all green now.

Source: Philly Fed. Note: For complaints about red / green issues, please contact the Philly Fed.

Rising Investor Caution

Rising Investor Caution

Rising Investor Caution

June 21, 2017

With a low of $43.33 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate oil has fallen 20.4% from its February 23 closing high of $54.45.

The sliding energy sector weighed especially had on Australian equities, which fell 1.6% today. Stocks also dropped 0.9% in Singapore, 0.8% in New Zealand, and 0.5% in Japan and South Korea. And in European trading so far, equities have lost 0.8% in France, 0.9% in Greece, 0.6% in Switzerland, Spain and Germany and 0.5% in Great Britain.

The dollar relinquished most of Tuesday’s rise against sterling, dropping 0.5% against the currency and is also down 0.3% relative to the kiwi, and 0.1% versus the yen, euro and Swiss franc. The dollar is unchanged against the peso and yuan and has risen 0.2% against the loonie and Aussie dollar.

Gold firmed 0.3% to $1,247.40 per ounce.

Ten-year British gilt and Japanese JGB yields are up by two and one basis points, while their German counterpart slid a basis point.

Remarks by Fed officials in recent days have underscored an intent to disregard softer price and growth data while moving forward resolutely with policy normalization through a rising interest rate and reductions to its balance sheet that are likely to commence in the second half of this year.

The Fed stance contrasts with thinking at the Bank of Japan. Minutes released today from the BOJ Board meeting of April 26-27 seem meant to squelch speculation that officials there will pull back from their ultra-stimulative stance anytime soon. While the BOJ has been observed lately to be buying JGBs in less quantity than the target of 80 trillion yen per year and in spite of the BOJ’s upward assessment of economic prospects, risk to growth is still perceived to the downside and the minutes strongly defend current policy settings. A speech today by Governor Kuroda also defended the status quo.

Japan’s all-industry index shot up 2.1% in April, most in a year. This monthly supply-side proxy for GDP had dipped 0.1% in the first quarter, but April saw construction leap by 7.3%, industrial production go up 4.0%, and service sector activity rise 1.2% on month. The all-industry index, which posted small back-to-back increases of 0.5% in 2015 and 2016, was 1.9% higher in April than a year earlier.

In other Japanese economic news, supermarket sales in May were 1.8% below the year-earlier level, but machine tool orders that month posted a 24.5% on-year advance.

Dutch consumer confidence in June was unchanged from May’s reading. Belgian consumer sentiment fell 2 points to a 4-month low. Swedish consumer confidence also declined, but the overall economic tendency index in Sweden rose 0.4 points to a higher-than-forecast 112.1 score in June.

The French government projects 2017 economic growth of 1.6% but core inflation this year of only 0.8%.

Swiss on-year M3 money growth accelerated to 4.1% in May from 3.2% in April.

British monthly public sector borrowing data in May were close to market expectations. Debt that month equaled 86.5% of GDP.

Consumer prices in the year to May rose 3.9% in Malaysia and 5.4% in South Africa.

Uber CEO Kalanick has resigned. U.S. existing home sales data will be reported later today, and several Fed officials are scheduled to speak publicly.

Copyright 2017, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.

Tags: Japanese all industry idex, Kalanick




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