By Thomas C. FrohlichFebruary 16, 2018 9:25 pm EST
The vast majority of crimes committed in the United States are nonviolent property crimes — larceny-thefts such as shoplifting, vehicle thefts, and burglaries. There were nearly 8 million such crimes in 2016, a decline of 1.3% from the previous year and of 19.9% from a decade ago. Still, property crimes remain quite common — and costly. Property crimes cost Americans an estimated $15.6 billion in 2016.
Crime tends to cluster in hotspots, and the likelihood of witnessing or experiencing a crime can vary greatly among residents even of the same local area. Looking at the city with the highest property crime rate in every state demonstrates how property crime rates can vary within states and across the nation.
To find the city with the most property crime in every state, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the number of property crimes reported for every 100,000 residents in U.S. cities of 20,000 people or more. For context, there are approximately 2,500 property crimes for every 100,000 Americans in a year. Property crimes range from less than 300 offenses per 100,000 people in Ridgefield, Connecticut to more than 15,000 offenses per 100,000 people in Tukwila, Washington.
John Roman is a senior fellow at NORC, a social research institution at the University of Chicago, formerly known as the National Opinion Research Center. In an interview with 24/7 Wall St., Roman explained that several conditions often come together in high property crime areas: There must be individuals motivated to commit crimes; there must be suitable targets — people who have things worth stealing; and there must be what criminologists call a lack of guardianship, basic security provisions like guards or surveillance cameras. “[P]laces that have more property crime could have any combination of those three things going against them,” he said.
Click here to see the cities with the most property crime in every state. Click here to see our detailed findings and methodology.
Holidays: Lunar New Year Closures Monday in China, Hong Kong and Singapore. China remains shut on Tuesday and Wednesday. U.S. and Canada are also closed on Monday for Washington’s Birthday and Family Day, respectively.
Central Banks: Following a slew of central bank policy reviews during the past two weeks, the coming week has very few including Colombia. However, released minutes of past policy meetings by the Fed’s Open Market Committee and the Reserve Bank of Australia Board will draw attention. Dudley, Bostic and Mester of the Fed will be speaking publicly. So do Funo of the Bank of Japan and Bullock of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Scheduled U.S. Statistical Releases: The coming lean week brings existing home sales, K.C. Fed manufacturing index, Conference Board index of leading economic indicators and the usual assortment of weekly observations covering chain store sales, unemployment insurance claims, consumer comfort, energy inventories, and mortgage applications.
Euroland: Preliminary purchasing manager indices, consumer prices, employment growth, construction output, current account and ZEW index of investor sentiment.
Members of the Euro Area: German GDP, PPI, consumer confidence, ZEW index of investor sentiment, IFO business climate index, and preliminary PMI. French preliminary PMI, business sentiment, CPI, and index of leading economic indicators. Italian, Finnish, Austrian and Cypriot consumer prices. Italian, Greek, and Portuguese current accounts. Irish, Spanish, and Portuguese producer prices. Belgian and Dutch consumer confidence. Belgian business sentiment and Finnish unemployment. Spanish and Austrian industrial production. Spanish trade.
U.K. And Switzerland: British GDP, labor market statistics, public sector borrowing, Rightmove house price, BBA estimate of mortgage approvals, and the CBI surveys of industrial trends and distributive trades. Swiss trade, industrial production, and money growth.
Japan and China: Japanese consumer prices, corporate service prices, tertiary index, all industry index, customs trade balance, preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers index, department store sales, and supermarket sales. China’s index of leading economic indicators.
Selected Other Asian Data: South Korean producer prices, Thai GDP, Hong Kong unemployment, Singaporean consumer prices, and India’s index of leading economic indicators.
Australia and New Zealand: Australian labor costs, motor vehicle sales, construction completions, and index of leading economic indicators. New Zealand food prices, producer prices and retail sales.
Canada, Mexico, and Brazil: Canadian consumer prices, retail sales and wholesale turnover. Mexican GDP and current account. Brazilian consumer confidence and index of leading economic indicators.
Copyright 2018, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Economic Data Calendar
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S&P 500 index gained 1.3% on Wednesday, following lower opening of the trading session. The market has extended its rally from Friday’s low. But will it continue higher today? We can see some short-term overbought conditions. Was this two-week-long sell-off the beginning of a new medium-term downtrend or just downward correction before another leg up? It’s hard to say, but this move down set the negative tone for weeks or months to come.
The U.S. stock market extended its short-term uptrend on Wednesday. The main indexes gained 1.0-1.9% following lower opening of the trading session. The S&P 500 index broke above its Monday-Tuesday trading range. The broad stock market gauge retraced most of its last week’s Wednesday-Friday’s sell-off, as it got close to 2,700 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9% yesterday.
The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,720-2,730, marked by last week’s Wednesday’s local high of 2,727.67. The next resistance level is at 2,740-2,760, among others. On the other hand, support level is at 2,640-2,650, marked by some recent local lows. The next level of support remains at 2,580-2,600, among others. The S&P 500 index is very close to the 50% retracement of the sell-off from record high of 2,872.87 (2702.78). The next important retracement of 61.8% is at 2,742.92.
The index reached its record high more than two weeks ago on Friday, January 26. It broke below month-long upward trend line on Tuesday, January 30 following gap-down opening of the trading session, confirming uptrend’s reversal. Then the market retraced all of its January rally and continued lower. The index extended its downtrend on Friday, as it fell almost 12% below its late January record high. We can see that stocks are sharply reversing their medium-term upward course following the whole retracement of last month’s euphoria rally. The market bounced off its almost year-long medium-term upward trend line on Friday, and it currently trades at its steeper, August-February upward trend line:
The index futures contracts trade 0.5-0.9% higher vs. their Wednesday’s closing prices right now. It means that investors’ expectations ahead of the opening of today’s trading session are positive. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.5-1.4% so far. But will the sentiment remained that bullish after cash market opening at 9:30 a.m.? For now, it looks like the market may extend its short-term uptrend and continue its run above 2,700 mark. It may retrace the whole Wednesday-Friday’s sell-off.
Investors will wait for series of economic data announcements today: Producer Price Index, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Claims at 8:30 a.m., Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization at 9:15 a.m., NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 a.m. Investors will also wait for more quarterly corporate earnings releases.
The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it fluctuates following breakout above the level of 2,700. The market sharply reversed its downward course yesterday after selling off before cash market opening. Investors reacted negatively to economic data release, but the futures contract came back and continued much higher.
The nearest important level of support is now at 2,690-2,700, marked by some recent fluctuations. The next support level is at 2,670-2,680, marked by short-term local highs. On the other hand, level of resistance is at 2,725-2,730, marked by previous local high. The next resistance level is at 2,750-2,760, among others. The futures contract trades above 2,700 mark, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:
Intelligence is easily the most profound qualifier for why we humans rule planet earth.
It’s also only the smallest percentage that makes all the difference.
Consider that we share about 90% of our DNA with blimmin’ mice for goodness sake. And yet the differences couldn’t be starker. In fact, we share fully 99% with chimpanzees, and even though we’ve all met “those people” who make us wish for a chimp, for the most part we humans trump chimps by most any metric.
Intelligence is also the most dangerous.
Consider what being another species on this planet looks like. Not great. We tend to think of danger only as it relates to us (humans). And THAT may be on the cusp of changing.
Let me explain:
Man, which is you and I, I’ll argue, due to supreme intelligence (certainly over chimps and our fellow species sharing this planet) has reconfigured the WHOLE WORLD to suit our purposes. But it’s only happened in the last little itty-bitty fraction of a fraction of time we’ve been hammering out a living on this ball of dirt.
If you were a Yoda on steroids, smart, and living for billions of years, and you were to have viewed this planet from the stars for the billions of years it’s been doing its thing orbiting the sun, you’d have nodded off from intense boredom. Not a helluva lot happened.
In fact, aside from the tectonic plates shifting about (which themselves took longer than women clothes shopping… way longer), you’d not have noticed much change.
And then… BAM!
In the last 0.001% of history you’d have seen radical change. For starters, as the planet rotates causing night and day, you’d have noticed that the bits experiencing darkness bloody glow. No really, they do.
Being Yoda-like and as calm as he usually would be, after literally billions of years of NOTHING, I’m pretty sure you’d be sitting bolt upright thinking, “Hey wait, what the hell?”
What you’d also have noticed is large swathes of land, completely reconfigured to suit the purposes of just one species on this planet. And it ain’t the fish.
What you’d be witnessing was a parabolic growth in intelligence — an intelligence that decisively now reigns supreme on the planet, traversing geographies, ecosystems, and continents.
The flip side to this intelligence is, of course, arrogance.
Think of it like this…
We don’t hate monkeys, or mice, or most any of our fellow creatures on this planet. BUT we certainly don’t miss a beat when we crush their poor little skulls in a lab in order to better understand what might happen to us humans when incurring head trauma.
We don’t hate foxes but we don’t think too much about their little homes when we clear land to grow our sandwiches.
We don’t hate any of these creatures. In fact, we tend to find them cute and of interest at an individual level, but we sure as hell aren’t going to let THEIR discomfort get in the way of OUR progress.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m not one of the Marxist, anti-human crowd who believes we’re all a plague and should all stop having children, take up self-loathing, and pop cyanide for brekkie. I’m just pointing out some facts because they’re important for what comes next… and maybe, just maybe (yes, actually definitely) why we should not be so arrogant about the risks.
Enter Artificial Intelligence…
And no, I’m not talking about a blonde who’s died her hair brown. I’m talking real mind-blowing smarter-than-isht AI.
Even Alan Turing himself predicted that one day computers would have minds of their own. He predicted that in 1950, though, he figured it was 100 years away. He was right and he was wrong. They do have minds of their own and it took half the time.
The Telegraph reported that 2 years ago Google’s DeepMind AI program AlphaGo smoked world champion Lee Sedol at the highly complex board-game go:
Thousands of years of human knowledge has been learned and surpassed by the world’s smartest computer in just 40 days, a breakthrough hailed as one of the greatest advances ever in artificial intelligence.
Google DeepMind amazed the world last year when its AI programme AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol at Go, an ancient and complex game of strategy and intuition which many believed could never be cracked by a machine.
AlphaGo was so effective because it had been programmed with millions of moves of past masters, and could predict its own chances of winning, adjusting its game-plan accordingly.
What was unique about this — because we all remember how Gary Kasparov was defeated by IBM’s Deep Blue supercomputer back in the 90’s — was that go is an iterative game where the AI system was only taught the rules of the game but none of the possible moves. It had to learn them on the fly. In other words, it had to “think”:
According to Wired it took AlphaZero just four hours to become a chess champion, two hours for shogi, and eight hours to defeat the world’s greatest Go-playing computer program.
So this is significant because it means we’ve gone beyond “rule-based” AI to something else.
Now, I can hear you saying already, “But Chris, we’re going to have exponential growth the likes of which we’ve never seen and it’s going to be even more amazing than the advent of the internet, electricity, fire, and the wheel combined.”
And to that I say, “Well, yeah that’s partly my concern. Sure, I get it. I can envisage some neck snapping changes — for the good.”
And I know grown men who would rather pull their own heads off than go down this path. But go down it we are.
Think I’m kidding? Hong Kong’s metro, arguably the most sophisticated in the world, isn’t run by little Chinese people running around. It’s run by an AI:
…the algorithm that’s responsible for the incredible task of repairing and maintaining the system. That means assigning 10,000 employees to take care of more than 2,500 engineering jobs every week—an insanely complicated puzzle that would normally take a panel of humans two days of strategizing and planning. Instead, their bot can calculate the most efficient assignments and adapt to new information in seconds.
And yes, I can imagine how blockchain can integrate with AI and how DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) will function, and in fact, almost certainly rise to become THE top organisations in the world.
I can see how governance roles will be meted out by an AI. Hiring, firing, profiling, KPI’s — none of it done by humans. There will likely be incredible tools for management, decision making, agreement making — all things which can be automated iteratively and they’ll all function like code. I get all that.
Consider what I was saying about foxes, lab rats, and the like. Consider this when thinking about a super AI which is the exponentialised version of what began merely as a niche AI project. But now this super AI iterates, betters, corrects, adjusts, quantifies, and if necessary, replicates based on millions, nay trillions, heck even exabytes (or whatever comes next) of data.
Will such an AI, or its cousins, sisters, brothers, half brothers, and all its interbred family “back off” from crushing a fox’s human’s skull in order to “advance”?
Like anything invented by man, it can be used for good or evil.
Derivatives can assist farmers to hedge against crop failure but they can also be used to blow up investors’ money and destabilise financial markets. Water sustains life but can also drown us. AI can be used to help solve some of the most complex problems mankind has — from curing Alzheimers to ridding the globe of plastic and everything in between.
But the thing with manmade things in the past is that they’ve always been up to man to decide how to use or abuse them. That looks like it’s about to change.
Who to Trust?
In a World Economic Forum interview with Sergey Brin of Google, Brin remarked that, despite being a few paper clips away from Google Brain’s Jeff Dean, he did not see deep learning coming.
Now, if Brin himself who created Google couldn’t have predicted the advance of deep learning, then what does that tell us about what we know, what we think we know, and what comes next?
Now, you may be sitting there saying to yourself, “Heck, Chris you know nothing about what you’re writing about. After all, you’re a money manager, not a data scientist or programmer.”
And I’ll laugh and say, “Of course, yes. You’re dead right.”
But I’ll whisper a little truth, and I say this after having read countless hours of academic research papers on this very topic:
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” — Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in physics
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (4.2% annualized rate) in January. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.3% (3.5% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.5% (6.7% annualized rate) in January. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.3% (4.3% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for January here. Motor fuel was up sharply in January.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.4%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.9%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.8%. Core PCE is for December and increased 1.5% year-over-year.
On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 4.2% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 3.5% annualized, and core CPI was at 4.3% annualized.
Using these measures, inflation picked up a little year-over-year in January. Overall, these measures are close, but still mostly below, the Fed’s 2% target (Median CPI is slightly above).
Swedish Riksbank Keeps Repo Rate at Negative 0.50%
February 14, 2018
Four months after lowering Sweden’s repo rate to an unprecedented level of zero percent in October 2014, Executive Board members embraced the negative interest rate tool, cutting the repo four times over the twelve months to February 2016 to its current level of -0.5% where such has been for the past two years. The start of a cycle of rate hikes is not expected to begin before the second half of this year. In fact, Board members at their latest review observed recently slower wage growth and lower-than-expected service price inflation. The released statement revises projected total and core inflation in 2018 downward by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points to 1.7% and 1.8%, presents the hope that the Swedish krona doesn’t strengthen too rapidly, and asserts that “it is important not to raise the rate too early” simply because of the good outlook for Swedish growth. “It has taken a long time to bring inflation and inflation expectations back to 2 percent and uncertainty about inflationary developments means that monetary policy needs to be cautious.” Deputy Governor Ohlsson wasn’t convinced and cast a dissenting vote for a 25-basis point repo rate hike to -0.25%.
Copyright, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: Swedish Riksbank
This entry was posted
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Here’s a trade idea to test out: Long the S&P futures via a 2665/2770 strikes Long Call Spread with Friday expiration.
My rationale for this is that the two-hour chart shows a narrow range for two days, which seems to be setting up for a breakout. Some chartists will add that the 40-point width/height of the range to the current high point is at 2660 to yield a target of 2700. This even number is also the halfway area of the compressed Bollinger Bands.
If you want to see a potential raging bull inside a caged, narrow range, see the market internals from 12:00 p.m. Central until 12:30 p.m. Central. Also, notice the gap ups in price in the one-minute chart in TICK and TICK/Q, which are price pass-throughs where levels are skipped entirely; VX or the VIX one-minute chart’s cascade down move closing on its lows and holding them; and, finally, my projected range for the week showing 2698 for a low, high-of-the-week target.
The 12:15, :23, and :38 1-min S&P 500 futures candles had volume spikes on the way up, and some momentum studies in the two-hour and four-hour time frames support some higher pricing possibilities. No breakout or news-induced rally is guaranteed nor any advice rendered. One of my childhood violin teachers said “if you’re going to make a mistake, make it a big one, and hold your violin up, play the music with confidence.”
So, seek a professional for specific professional advice in case my anticipation of a rally is wrong.
About the Author
Trevor Smith is a registered commodity trading advisor who holds four degrees across multiple disciplines. His study of financial markets led to his beliefs that investors can be self-directed and that market moves could be predicted using a variety of technical indicators and mathematics.